1 Comment

1. Paul Turke on April 5, 2020 at 10:28 am

   Hi Vaughn. Beautifully done presentation, and very informative.

   I’ve been thinking about the evolution of virulence in Sars-Co-V-2. My starting point is the early work of Paul Ewald, particularly, as you briefly discuss, the idea that viruses that require up and mobile hosts for transmission will tend to evolve in the direction of less virulence. With that in mind, I have a few thoughts.

   First, hard surfaces like countertops and doorhandles are evolutionarily novel, and therefore are, like urban crowding and rapid long-distance travel, examples of evolutionary mismatch.

   Thus, it seems reasonable to suggest that hard surfaces, on which Sars-Co-V-2 is capable of persisting for days, are in a sense vectors; that is, like mosquitos they could increase the ability of very ill, relatively immobile individuals to transmit their pathogens, thereby selecting for increased virulence, or at least decreasing the force of selection against it.

   In turn, if any of this makes sense, we should be thinking of ways to eradicate this particular ‘vector.’ I don’t mean getting rid of countertops and doorhandles, but perhaps altering them in ways that are less favorable to the survival of viruses and other pathogens. This, of course, won’t be easy to do quickly, but maybe could help to spare us in the future.

   I wonder what you think, Vaughn? Old news? Silly?

   –Paul

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